The text below is kindly provided by Business Monitor International

Official data for the first six months of 2008, released by Bulgaria’s National Statistical Institute, show foreign tourist arrivals standing at 3,193,235 visitors. This figure includes transit passengers, which totalled 889,545 for the January-July period. For the year as a whole, the head of Bulgaria’s State Tourism Agency (STA) Aneliya Krushkova has been quoted in local media as believing there was a 14.6% annual increase in the number of foreign tourists visiting Bulgaria over 2008, although she stressed this estimate was based on preliminary data.

No concrete figures for 2008 as a whole were available to us at the time of going to press. Given the impact of the global credit crunch during Q408, we believe that the 14.6% annual increase alluded to by Ms Krushkova may prove to be slightly optimistic. In the absence of hard data, we believe that a smaller increase (of around 5%) is the most likely outcome for 2008.

Tourism revenues for the first seven months of 2008 totalled EUR1.5bn, some 12.1% higher year on year (y-o-y), according to the Bulgarian National Bank.

Forecast Scenario

We believe that Bulgaria’s tourism sector will continue to show steady, if not spectacular growth over our forecast period to 2013. We believe that the ongoing economic slowdown will have a negative effect on in-bound tourist arrivals to Bulgaria over Q408. We also believe that 2009 will see a decline in both tourist arrivals and tourism revenues. Beyond 2010, we are hopeful that the Bulgarian tourism industry can rebound slowly, with an average growth rate of 2% for the years out to 2013.

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